Winning Probability and Match Preview for D-Backs vs Padres - 7/06/2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Brandon Pfaadt to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Gabriel Moreno has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 20.1% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 away games (+9.35 Units / 70% ROI)
Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics