Player Prop Picks for Brewers vs Cardinals – 7/6/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Shane Drohan – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Shane Drohan has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Because of Dustin May’s large platoon split, Christian Yelich will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Today, Brice Turang is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 43.3% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Dustin May in this matchup, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)
  The 5th-worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-175/+135)
  Pedro Pages has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.35 Units / 19% ROI)