White Sox vs Yankees Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/24/2025

Chicago White Sox

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New York Yankees

On September 24, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium in a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Yankees sit comfortably in a playoff position with an impressive record of 89-68, where they’ve been powered by the league’s 1st best offense. In contrast, the White Sox struggle at 58-99 and rank 28th in MLB, showcasing a season to forget.

In their last meeting, the Yankees edged out the White Sox, continuing their strong form, while the White Sox have faltered dramatically this season. For the Yankees, Max Fried is projected to start. Fried has established himself as an elite pitcher this season, ranking 7th in MLB among starting pitchers, with a stellar Win/Loss record of 18-5 and an excellent ERA of 2.92. However, projections suggest he may be due for some regression, as his 3.42 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit lucky this year.

Fraser Ellard takes the mound for the White Sox, but his projections are far from encouraging. He is expected to pitch only 1.5 innings, allowing nearly a run per inning with poor strikeout and hit rates. The Yankees’ potent lineup, featuring the 1st best home run count in MLB, will likely target Ellard early and often.

Given the current odds, the Yankees are significant favorites with a high implied team total of 5.23 runs. Expect the Yankees to leverage their offensive prowess against a struggling White Sox team that has not found its footing this season. This game is pivotal for the Yankees as they look to solidify their playoff position.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under Hits
  Miguel Vargas is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under Total Bases
  Today, Michael A. Taylor is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has used his secondary offerings 7.1% more often this season (58%) than he did last year (50.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 95.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Yankees have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Slater, Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (+135)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 127 games (+14.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 36% ROI)