White Sox vs Red Sox Injury Report – Monday, April 21, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox welcome the struggling Chicago White Sox to Fenway Park on April 21, 2025, in what could be a pivotal game in their season. The Red Sox are currently sitting at 12-11, enjoying an above-average start, while the White Sox languish at a dismal 5-16. In their last matchup, the Red Sox took the win, and they look to keep that momentum rolling against a team that has struggled offensively all season.

Walker Buehler is projected to start for Boston, aiming to improve on his 2-1 record and 5.23 ERA. Although Buehler’s ERA is concerning, his 3.88 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky, and he projects to allow only 2.2 earned runs today. Meanwhile, Jonathan Cannon is slated to take the mound for Chicago, and he has yet to find success, holding a 0-2 record with a 4.42 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.94 indicates that he may be due for regression.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 11th in MLB with a strong lineup, particularly excelling in walks, where they stand 5th overall. This is particularly significant as Cannon has struggled with control, boasting a high walk rate at 13.1%. If the Red Sox can capitalize on this weakness, they could significantly enhance their scoring opportunities. Conversely, the White Sox’s offense is 30th in MLB, indicating they have had great difficulty generating runs and hits this season.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and Boston favored heavily at a moneyline of -295, expectations are for the Red Sox to put on a strong offensive display against the weak White Sox pitching. This matchup presents a great opportunity for Boston to solidify their position and take advantage of Chicago’s ongoing struggles.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jonathan Cannon’s cutter percentage has jumped by 5.8% from last season to this one (19.8% to 25.6%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Miguel Vargas is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-290)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Rafael Devers has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last season’s 93.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-280)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 43% ROI)
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Lenyn Sosa has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 36% ROI)