White Sox vs Mariners Preview and Prediction - Monday May 18th, 2026

+135O/U: 7
(-115/-105)-160

Noah Schultz – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
Compared to the average starting pitcher, Noah Schultz has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an -10.6 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Sam Antonacci – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
Samuel Antonacci has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Bryan Woo’s sinker rate has dropped by 5.7% from last year to this one (25.7% to 20%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
J.P. Crawford has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph EV.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Seattle Mariners offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 28% ROI)

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