
Philadelphia Phillies
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Toronto Blue Jays
-150O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+130
(-110/-110)+130
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Jesus Luzardo’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 90th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Schwarber usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Philadelphia Phillies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (44% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Yohendrick Pinango – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)Yohendrick Pinango has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)
