Watch the Game Highlights for Rays vs Nationals – Sunday, August 31, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays at Nationals Park on August 31, 2025, they’ll be looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss in their last game, where they were defeated 4-1. The Nationals currently sit at 53-82, struggling this season, while the Rays are at 66-69, performing at an average level.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Brad Lord, who has faced challenges recently, getting hit hard in his last outing on August 25, where he gave up 6 earned runs over just 4 innings. Despite his current ranking as the 101st best starting pitcher in MLB, his 3.84 ERA is somewhat deceptive, as evidenced by his 4.49 xERA, which indicates he may be due for a rougher performance going forward. Lord projects to pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing about 2.2 earned runs, but his high potential for hits (5.1) and walks (1.4) could spell trouble against the Rays.

On the other side, Tampa Bay’s Ian Seymour is expected to take the mound. He has been solid in his most recent start, throwing 5 innings of shutout ball with 8 strikeouts and just 1 hit allowed. With an impressive 3.18 ERA, Seymour’s projections suggest he will pitch nearly 5 innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs while posting average strikeout numbers and a lower hit allowance than Lord.

The Nationals’ offense is ranked 24th in MLB and has struggled to produce runs consistently, which could hinder their efforts against a Rays team that possesses the 1st best stolen base ranking in the league. Given the current odds, the Nationals are seen as underdogs with a low implied team total of 3.73 runs. Meanwhile, the projections for the Rays suggest a higher team total of 4.27 runs, indicating a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  In his last start, Ian Seymour was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Junior Caminero has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 97-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Josh Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 14.3 outs per start this year on average, Bradley Lord falls in the 10th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jacob Young has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .229 BA is a fair amount lower than his .269 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Washington Nationals have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Paul DeJong, Brady House, Riley Adams).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 110 games (+14.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brad Lord – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+125/-160)
  Brad Lord has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.20 Units / 76% ROI)