
Milwaukee Brewers
@

Chicago Cubs
+140O/U: 10.5
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+140)Among every team in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Gary Sanchez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)William Contreras has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Because groundball hitters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Shota Imanaga and his 44.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in this outing being matched up with 5 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Milwaukee’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Seiya Suzuki, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-165)The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+10.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+360/-530)Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+11.30 Units / 141% ROI)
