Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-160
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park on July 22, 2024, the stakes are quite different for these two American League West rivals. The Mariners, with a record of 53-48, are having an above-average season and are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Conversely, the Angels are struggling with a 42-57 record, indicating a tough season for them.
A significant pitching matchup is on the horizon as right-hander Bryce Miller takes the mound for Seattle, while the Angels will counter with left-hander Tyler Anderson. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Mariners are favored with a 60% projected win probability, aligning closely with the betting odds which also favor Seattle at -160.
Bryce Miller has been a solid presence for the Mariners this season, boasting a 7-7 record and a respectable 3.63 ERA. However, his 4.15 xERA indicates he might have been a tad fortunate. In his last start on July 10, Miller pitched exceptionally well, hurling 6 shutout innings. THE BAT X projects Miller to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, while striking out 5.6 batters, which should give the Mariners a good chance to secure the win.
On the other side, Tyler Anderson’s 2.97 ERA might seem stellar, but his 5.02 xFIP suggests he has been quite lucky. Anderson’s last outing on July 12 saw him concede 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Today’s projections are not as kind to Anderson, expecting him to allow 2.6 earned runs and 2.3 walks over 5.6 innings.
Offensively, Seattle’s lineup has been a mixed bag. Despite ranking 28th in overall offense and dead last in batting average, they have shown decent power, sitting 10th in home runs. Julio Rodriguez has been their standout performer, contributing significantly with 18 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense, ranked 24th, has also struggled, despite solid contributions from Zach Neto, who has hit 13 home runs and stolen 16 bases.
With two of the lower-ranked bullpens facing off (Seattle at 23rd and the Angels at 27th), late-game runs could be a factor. Both teams are coming off victories, with the Mariners defeating the Astros 6-4 and the Angels besting the Athletics 8-5 in their respective last games.
This matchup is pivotal for the Mariners as they continue their push toward the postseason. While the Angels look to play spoiler, the edge clearly favors Seattle, both in terms of projections and recent form. The betting markets and THE BAT X align in projecting the Mariners to have the upper hand in this first game of the series.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson will be at an advantage facing 7 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in this outing.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.235) suggests that Brandon Drury has had some very poor luck this year with his .171 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Logan O’Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Bryce Miller’s fastball spin rate has fallen 114 rpm this season (2477 rpm) below where it was last year (2591 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 95 games (+10.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)