Team Stats and Insights for Pirates vs Athletics Match Preview - 6/15/2026

+105O/U: 10.5
(-105/-115)-125

Jared Jones – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
Jared Jones has averaged 73.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 6th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Ryan O’Hearn has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
J.T. Ginn’s sinker usage has decreased by 16.2% from last season to this one (49.3% to 33.1%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Henry Bolte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Henry Bolte has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 99.4-mph in the past two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Compared to their .339 overall projected rate, the .327 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Athletics projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Athletics – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 48% ROI)
Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
Carlos Cortes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)

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