
Pittsburgh Pirates
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Atlanta Braves
-110O/U: 8
(-105/-115)-110
(-105/-115)-110
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Oneil Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 97.7-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Ryan O’Hearn has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will be challenged by the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Spencer Strider is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in MLB today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- It may be best to expect negative regression for the Atlanta Braves offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Run Line +1.0 (-150)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+15.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)Nick Gonzales has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+9.70 Units / 139% ROI)
