
San Francisco Giants
@

Baltimore Orioles
+105O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-125
(-110/-110)-125
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+105)Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Casey Schmitt has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .314 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Cade Povich – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Cade Povich projects to strikeout an average of 5.7 bats in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Colton Cowser has a ton of pop (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (32% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Adrian Houser struggles to strike batters out (6th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Coby Mayo pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 50 games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-165)Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games at home (+6.70 Units / 167% ROI)
