Tigers vs White Sox Bets and Betting Trends – 8/25/24

Detroit Tigers

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Detroit Tigers on August 25, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the American League Central. The White Sox are struggling significantly this season, currently holding a record of 31-99, while the Tigers sit at a more respectable 64-66. This game marks the third in the series, and the White Sox are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 13-4 loss to the Tigers yesterday.

On the mound, the White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to pitch. Although Cannon has an average ERA of 4.26, he ranks as the 260th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is among the least effective pitchers in the league. His recent performance was less than stellar, as he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. In contrast, the Tigers will counter with Beau Brieske, who has shown potential despite a 4.24 ERA. Brieske’s underlying metrics suggest he has been unlucky this season, and he is projected to perform better moving forward.

The White Sox offense has struggled mightily, ranking 30th in MLB, while the Tigers are slightly better at 26th. However, the projections indicate that the Tigers are expected to score significantly more runs than the White Sox, with estimates of 5.39 runs compared to 4.07 runs for Chicago. This mismatch highlights the challenges facing the White Sox as they aim to improve their dismal season performance.

With the White Sox’s best hitter, Andrew Vaughn, and the Tigers’ standout, Riley Greene, both key players to watch, this matchup is crucial for the Tigers as they look to push for a stronger finish to the season. As the White Sox continue to navigate a rough season, they will need a standout performance to turn things around against a Tigers team that is currently favored in this contest.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  As it relates to his batting average, Spencer Torkelson has been lucky this year. His .212 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .170.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Torkelson, Trey Sweeney, Dillon Dingler, Jace Jung).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jonathan Cannon will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 93 games (+4.40 Units / 4% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 22 away games (+13.05 Units / 40% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)