Tigers vs Astros Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday April 29, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on April 29, 2025, the stakes are high in this competitive American League matchup. The Astros recently secured a victory against the Tigers, winning 8-5 on April 28, which could give them a psychological edge heading into this second game of the series. Despite their current record of 15-13, the Astros are having an above-average season, while the Tigers, boasting a 18-11 record, are having a great start to their campaign.

Starting for Houston will be Ryan Gusto, who has shown flashes of brilliance this season. With a solid ERA of 2.78, Gusto’s performance has been noteworthy, although advanced metrics suggest some luck has played a role, as his 3.40 xFIP indicates he may face challenges ahead. He projects to pitch around 4.9 innings today, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs, which is above average, but he might struggle with walks, projected at 1.4 today.

On the other side, Reese Olson takes the mound for Detroit. Olson has been a reliable presence, with an impressive ERA of 3.29. However, similar to Gusto, his projections suggest he may not maintain this level of performance, with a 4.00 xERA indicating potential regression. Olson is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.5 earned runs, but he too may struggle with hits and walks.

The Astros’ offense, ranked 25th in MLB, has been underwhelming, but their recent win could indicate a turnaround. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ offense ranks 11th, providing a more balanced attack. With the Astros’ bullpen ranked 10th and the Tigers’ bullpen leading the league at 1st, the late innings could be pivotal. Oddsmakers have set a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, reflecting the tight competition expected in this matchup, where Houston is favored at -120.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Reese Olson’s sinker rate has jumped by 8.5% from last year to this one (20.2% to 28.7%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Zach McKinstry has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Ryan Gusto’s fastball spin rate of 2440 rpm grades out in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86-mph average last year has lowered to 81.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.4% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.0 (-155)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in their last 8 games at home (+9.35 Units / 85% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 76% ROI)