Team Stats and Prediction for Pirates vs Tigers Matchup 9/25/26

-110O/U: 8
(-105/-115)-110

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bubba Chandler has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.5% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
Despite posting a .265 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck given the .046 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
In today’s game, Brandon Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39% rate (96th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jackson Jobe – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Jackson Jobe’s fastball velocity has increased 1.2 mph this season (97 mph) over where it was last year (95.8 mph).
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Detroit Tigers have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Ben Malgeri, John Peck, Spencer Torkelson).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)

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