Read the Game Recap for Cubs vs Red Sox - September 25th, 2026

-115O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-105

Michael Conforto – Over/Under Hits
Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brayan Bello – Over/Under Strikeouts
Brayan Bello has utilized his sinker 5.2% more often this year (39.8%) than he did last season (34.6%).
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Caleb Durbin – Over/Under Total Bases
Caleb Durbin’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.2-mph EV last season has dropped off to 82.9-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
As a team, Boston Red Sox batters have excelled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 2nd-best in MLB.
Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

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