Read the Game Recap for Cubs vs Red Sox - September 25th, 2026

-120O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)+100

Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+295/-430)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 84.6-mph average last year has fallen to 82.6-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Connor Wong, the Red Sox’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 62% ROI)
Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Nick Sogard – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+205/-280)
Nick Sogard has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)

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