Stream the Rockies vs Phillies Game Live – 3/31/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on March 31, 2025, they look to bounce back from a disappointing 5-1 loss to the New York Mets the previous day. The Phillies currently sit at 2-1, showcasing a strong start to the season, while the Rockies, at 1-2, have struggled out of the gate. This matchup marks the first game of the series between these two National League teams.

The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, who is ranked as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Sanchez pitched well in his last start, going 5 innings while allowing only 2 earned runs, and he projects to allow just 1.8 earned runs today. However, his tendency to allow 4.3 hits and 1.1 walks on average is concerning. On the other hand, German Marquez, the Rockies’ starter, is viewed unfavorably in the projections, with a below-average strikeout rate and a tendency to give up 5.1 hits and 1.8 walks.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 4th in MLB, thanks to a lineup that has been impressive early in the season. Their best hitter boasts a .385 batting average and an OPS of 1.313, indicating strong performance. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense is merely average, ranking 18th in MLB, and their best hitter has a respectable .444 batting average but lacks the overall depth to match the Phillies.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Phillies holding a significant betting favorite status with a moneyline of -290, expectations are high for Philadelphia to capitalize on their strong offensive capabilities against a struggling Rockies team.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects German Marquez to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Michael Toglia is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-275)
  Given the 0.24 difference between Cristopher Sanchez’s 3.27 ERA and his 3.03 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season and should see better results going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Schwarber’s 93.6-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the majors since the start of last season: 98th percentile.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 112 games (+12.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+260)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 123 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 65% ROI)