Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Tigers vs D-Backs Matchup 3/31/2026

-110O/U: 9.5
(+100/-120)-110

Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
Given the 0.56 gap between Casey Mize’s 8.40 K/9 and his 7.84 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and figures to see worse results in the future.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The Detroit Tigers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Rogers, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Among all starters, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2568 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
Utilizing Statcast metrics, Carlos Santana grades out in the 2nd percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .193.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+18.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+165/-215)
Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.05 Units / 113% ROI)

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