Simulation and Insights for Cubs vs Brewers Match Preview – Sunday May 04, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will clash with the Chicago Cubs on May 4, 2025, in a pivotal National League Central matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, currently holding a record of 16-18, are struggling this season, while the Cubs sit comfortably at 21-13, enjoying a strong start. In their last game, the Cubs edged out the Brewers in a closely contested battle, further solidifying their upper hand in the series.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers, and he has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a solid 2.52 ERA and a Power Ranking of #32 among starting pitchers, indicating he is a competent arm. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests that he may have benefited from some good fortune, making it plausible that he could face challenges today. Peralta projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, but he also has a concerning tendency to allow 4.4 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

On the other side, Shota Imanaga, the Cubs’ left-handed starter, has also been effective with a 2.77 ERA, though his average xFIP of 4.67 indicates he might be due for a regression as well. Imanaga projects to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.8 innings, but he, too, has issues with allowing hits and walks.

The Brewers’ offense is ranked 16th in MLB, with a particularly poor showing in home runs (22nd ranked), while the Cubs boast the 2nd-best offense overall, including leading the league in batting average and home runs. This contrast in offensive performance could be the deciding factor, especially with Peralta’s tendency to give up fly balls against a powerful Cubs lineup.

With both teams showing low implied team totals of 3.75 runs, this game is projected to be tight. However, considering the Cubs’ offensive prowess and the Brewers’ struggles, it seems the Cubs may have the advantage heading into this matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (90.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected batting order today (.330 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .347 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 83.1 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-590)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+6.60 Units / 165% ROI)