Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
On September 28, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park in a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Red Sox, currently holding an 88-73 record, are enjoying an above-average season and are well-positioned for a playoff push. Meanwhile, the Tigers sit at 87-74, also having a solid year. In their most recent encounter, the Red Sox triumphed over the Tigers, showcasing their offensive prowess.
Boston’s offense ranks 9th in MLB, with a particularly impressive 4th ranking in team batting average. This success will be crucial as they face off against Detroit’s pitching. Lucas Giolito, projected to start for the Red Sox, has a respectable ERA of 3.41 this season, though his advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression. He has been a low-strikeout pitcher, a potential advantage against the Tigers, who rank 5th in MLB for strikeouts.
Conversely, Chris Paddack will take the mound for the Tigers. Although he has struggled this season with a 5.27 ERA and a 5-11 record, his projections indicate he may improve. Paddack’s xFIP suggests he has faced some bad luck, but he still projects to pitch only 4.6 innings, which could put additional pressure on Detroit’s bullpen, currently ranked 18th in MLB.
Both teams feature standout hitters, with the Red Sox’s best performer recently boasting a .400 batting average over the last week. In contrast, the Tigers’ top hitter has also been productive, but their offense ranks just 12th overall. With Boston’s strong bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they might have the edge in a tightly contested game. Given these factors, the Red Sox appear to be in a favorable position to secure a win.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Chris Paddack – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chris Paddack to throw 74 pitches today (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under Total BasesSpencer Torkelson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.4-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 9.6% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers ranks them as the #7 group of hitters in baseball this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Lucas Giolito – Over/Under StrikeoutsLucas Giolito has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed bats in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Alex Bregman – Over/Under Total BasesWhen it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Alex Bregman has had some very good luck this year. His .356 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under Total BasesNathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.