See the Weather Forecast for Tigers vs Red Sox – Sunday, September 28th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox

Both the Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers head into their matchup on September 28, 2025, with above-average seasons, as evidenced by their records of 88-73 and 87-74, respectively. The Red Sox are currently contending for a Wild Card spot, while the Tigers have been eliminated from division contention. In their last game, the Red Sox fell short against the Tigers, losing 2-1, which adds further pressure as they seek to gain ground in the playoff race.

Boston’s Lucas Giolito is projected to start, and while he ranks as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, his ERA of 3.41 indicates he has been somewhat lucky this season. Giolito’s low strikeout rate (19.7 K%) could be an advantage against a Tigers offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts. However, he has been inconsistent, allowing 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks on average today, which could open the door for Detroit’s hitters.

Chris Paddack is slated to take the mound for the Tigers, but his 5.27 ERA and 5-11 record signal a tough year. While projections suggest he may perform slightly better than his stats indicate, his average outing of 4.5 innings raises concerns about how deep he can go, especially against a Red Sox offense that ranks 9th overall and 4th in batting average this season.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets anticipate a close contest, which is mirrored in the moneylines—Boston at +100 and Detroit at -120. The projections favor a high implied total for both teams, allowing for a potentially exciting showdown at Fenway Park.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chris Paddack to throw 74 pitches today (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88-mph EV last year has decreased to 86-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 9.6% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers ranks them as the #7 group of hitters in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Lucas Giolito has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.58 — a 1.07 K/9 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.7) implies that Nathaniel Lowe has been lucky this year with his 17.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+11.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 94 games (+11.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+630/-1200)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games at home (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)