
Colorado Rockies
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Philadelphia Phillies
+195O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-225
(+100/-120)-225
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Chase Dollander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Chase Dollander has used his sinker 13.3% more often this year (23.4%) than he did last season (10.1%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Hunter Goodman pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)Jesus Luzardo’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 89th percentile among all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Bryson Stott is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-225)The 5th-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+4.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- T.J. Rumfield – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)T.J. Rumfield has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.10 Units / 303% ROI)
