See the Starting Lineup for Reds vs Brewers – September 26, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 26, 2025, the stakes are high, especially with the Brewers looking to solidify their playoff positioning. Currently sitting at 96-63, the Brewers are in great form, while the Reds, at 81-78, are having an average season. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams will be eager to set the tone.

In their last outing, the Brewers had a strong performance, with their ace Quinn Priester on the mound. Priester, who boasts a 13-2 record and a stellar 3.25 ERA, is projected to pitch 5.5 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs. His advanced metrics indicate he’s been somewhat lucky this season, but he remains a solid starter, ranking 65th among approximately 350 pitchers in MLB.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Zack Littell, who has a 10-8 record and a 3.86 ERA. While Littell’s ERA is decent, his underlying numbers (4.93 FIP) suggest he could be due for a regression. With a low strikeout rate of 17.2% and facing a Brewers offense that ranks 11th overall and 3rd in batting average, Littell might find it challenging to navigate through Milwaukee’s lineup.

The Brewers rank as the 2nd best team in stolen bases, which could play a crucial role against a Reds pitching staff that has been vulnerable. The betting market reflects confidence in the Brewers, with a moneyline of -160 and an implied team total of 4.42 runs. As both teams vie for a critical win, expect an exciting contest at American Family Field.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Zack Littell has used his slider 6.7% less often this season (33.2%) than he did last season (39.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Will Benson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season’s 93.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-165)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under Total Bases
  Christian Yelich has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 27.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 17.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-165)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 105 games (+28.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 148 games (+27.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)