See the Starting Lineup for Reds vs Astros – May 10, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Cincinnati Reds at Minute Maid Park on May 10, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. The Astros, currently sitting at 19-18, are experiencing an average season, while the Reds trail slightly with a record of 19-21, indicating a below-average performance thus far. In their most recent encounter, the Astros achieved a decisive 3-0 victory, adding to the Reds’ struggles.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Lance McCullers Jr., who may have an impressive 0.00 ERA but comes with caution—his 4.97 xFIP suggests he may not be able to maintain this level of excellence. McCullers Jr. has struggled with walks, ranking among the top 6 highest in the league this season with a 16.7 BB%. This could pose a challenge against a Reds offense that has shown patience, ranking 8th in walks.

The Reds will counter with Brady Singer, who has a solid 3.66 ERA and a respectable 4-2 record in seven starts this season. Singer’s projections indicate he’ll likely pitch longer than McCullers Jr., with an estimated 6.3 innings and the potential to surrender just 2.3 earned runs—impressive in context. Additionally, he just faced a tough outing last time out, giving up 4 earned runs over 6 innings, which may motivate him to bounce back.

Betting markets have set the Astros as a slight favorite with a moneyline of -135, reflecting their better overall projection despite a struggling offense that ranks 19th in the league. The Reds, while ranked 13th offensively, have greater depth in power, sitting 14th in home runs. Given the Astros’ potential difficulties in overcoming their offensive inefficiencies, this matchup promises to be a close contest, emphasizing the need for McCullers Jr. to control his walk rate and for the Astros to capitalize on their home advantage.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Among all starters, Brady Singer’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  In the last 14 days, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rece Hinds, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Lance McCullers Jr. will give up an average of 2.23 earned runs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Isaac Paredes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 77.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros bats collectively rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( worst) when it comes to their 88.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)