Review the Latest Player Stats for Red Sox vs Mets – Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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New York Mets

As the Boston Red Sox visit Citi Field to face the New York Mets on September 4, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this interleague series. The Mets come off a decisive 7-2 victory over the Red Sox, showcasing their offensive prowess against a team struggling to find consistency. With a record of 75-64, the Mets are enjoying an above-average season, while the Red Sox stand at 70-69, hovering around .500.

Tylor Megill, projected to start for the Mets, has had a mixed bag of performances this season. Ranking 133rd out of approximately 350 pitchers in the league, he carries a 4.82 ERA and a 3-5 record after starting 10 games this year. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could improve. In his last start, Megill pitched five innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out six batters. He faces a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts this season, which could play to his advantage.

On the other side of the mound, Tanner Houck takes the hill for Boston. With a solid 3.12 ERA and a 31st ranking among MLB starters, Houck has demonstrated great form throughout the season. While he’s been effective, his projections indicate potential regression. In his recent outing, he threw six innings of shutout ball, striking out six and allowing just three hits.

With the current moneyline set at -110 for both teams, this matchup is deemed close. The projections lean slightly towards the Red Sox, which could indicate they are poised for a better showing this time around despite their recent loss. With both offenses capable of producing, the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both pitchers’ ability to keep runs off the board consistently.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Compared to the average hurler, Tanner Houck has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 5.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Boston Red Sox bats as a group rank among the elite in baseball this year (6th-) when it comes to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Tylor Megill has utilized his four-seamer 6.8% less often this year (48.9%) than he did last season (55.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has been very fortunate given the .053 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 74 games (+14.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 52 away games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games at home (+18.35 Units / 76% ROI)