Review Brewers vs D-Backs Betting Line and Odds – 4/13/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on April 13, 2025, both teams come into the game with identical 8-7 records, indicating above-average starts to the season. This matchup not only carries weight in the standings but also features two talented pitchers: Zac Gallen and Freddy Peralta. Gallen, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has had a rocky start to the season, holding a 5.28 ERA. In his most recent outing on April 7, he struggled significantly, allowing five earned runs over five innings. Conversely, Peralta, who has been outstanding with a 2.00 ERA, pitched well in his last game, going five innings and giving up just one earned run.

The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB, showcasing their potential to capitalize on a pitcher like Peralta. However, they face a challenge as Peralta is a high-strikeout pitcher (32.8 K%) against a Diamondbacks lineup that has the least strikeouts in MLB. This dynamic could favor the Diamondbacks, especially since they are known for their patient approach at the plate, ranking 2nd in walks.

When assessing the strengths of both bullpens, the Brewers hold a slight edge, ranking 7th compared to the Diamondbacks at 12th. This could play a pivotal role in a close contest. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. The Diamondbacks’ current moneyline is -120, indicating confidence in their ability to secure a win. With the Diamondbacks’ offense performing well and a projected improvement for Gallen, they may have the upper hand in this tightly contested game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta will “start” for Milwaukee Brewers in today’s matchup but will fill the role of an opener and may not go more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Sal Frelick has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 78.8-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Zac Gallen’s curveball usage has fallen by 6.6% from last year to this one (27.7% to 21.1%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jose Herrera ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 38% ROI)