Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
(-110/-110)-130
The Baltimore Orioles will host the Boston Red Sox on April 3, 2025, in a matchup of American League East rivals. Both teams enter this game with mediocre records early in the season, with the Orioles at 3-3 and the Red Sox at 2-4. The stakes are high, especially after the Orioles fell 3-0 to the Red Sox in their last game on April 2, marking a disappointing shutout.
Starting for the Orioles is Charlie Morton, who has struggled to begin the season with an ERA of 10.80. Despite his poor performance, projections suggest that Morton may be due for some positive regression, as his 3.47 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky. He’ll aim to improve on his last start, where he managed just three innings and allowed four earned runs. In contrast, Tanner Houck of the Red Sox has also faced challenges, posting a 6.35 ERA, but his projections hint at a slight advantage over Morton.
Offensively, the Orioles have shown promise, ranking 11th in MLB with a solid team batting average and home runs. Their best hitter has been on fire lately, boasting a .381 batting average over the last week and showing power with three home runs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s offense has struggled significantly, ranking 37th in MLB. Their best hitter has performed well, but the overall team dynamic remains concerning.
With the Orioles’ bullpen ranked 6th, they may have the edge in late-game situations. Betting markets have set the Orioles’ moneyline at -130, suggesting they are slight favorites in what is expected to be a closely contested game. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks. As both teams seek to right the ship, the Orioles could potentially capitalize on the Red Sox’s early-season woes.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+110)Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#3-worst of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 group of hitters in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Charlie Morton – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)Charlie Morton has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording 5.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 84 of their last 159 games (+16.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 away games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- Charlie Morton – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+120/-155)Charlie Morton has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+4.80 Units / 22% ROI)