Player Props Preview for Reds vs Rays – 7/27/24

Cincinnati Reds

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Cincinnati Reds continue their interleague series at Tropicana Field on July 27, 2024. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Rays holding a 52-52 record and the Reds sitting at 50-53. In their last matchup on July 26, the Reds edged out the Rays with a narrow 3-2 victory, in a game that was expected to be close according to the betting markets.

Zack Littell will take the mound for the Rays, bringing a 3-7 record and a 4.46 ERA. Despite his below-average ranking as the #124 best starting pitcher in MLB, Littell’s 3.92 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season and might perform better going forward. On the other side, the Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott, who boasts a solid 9-6 record and a 3.19 ERA. However, Abbott’s 4.92 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate and could regress.

Offensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. The Rays rank 21st in overall offense, with notable struggles in batting average (23rd) and home runs (26th). However, they excel in stealing bases, ranked 4th in MLB. Isaac Paredes has been their most consistent performer, with 55 RBIs and 16 home runs this season. Brandon Lowe has also been hot lately, posting a 1.076 OPS over the last week.

The Reds, meanwhile, sit at 16th in overall offense, with Elly De La Cruz leading the charge. De La Cruz has been particularly impressive over the last week, hitting .350 with a 1.135 OPS and showing off his speed with four stolen bases. The Reds’ offense is top-ranked in stolen bases but struggles with batting average, ranking 27th.

The Rays’ bullpen is ranked 11th, significantly better than the Reds’ bullpen, which is ranked 26th. This could be a crucial factor in what is projected to be another close game. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rays have a 58% chance of winning, higher than the 54% implied win probability from the betting markets, suggesting value in betting on Tampa Bay.

With both teams looking to gain an edge in this average season, the matchup between Littell and Abbott, combined with the Rays’ slight bullpen advantage and superior projections, makes Tampa Bay the more favorable pick for this contest.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Andrew Abbott has utilized his curveball 5.3% less often this year (11.8%) than he did last season (17.1%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jake Fraley is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this season (92 mph) below where it was last season (93.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Jonny Deluca has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph to 97.2-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 96 games (+19.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)