Player Props Analysis for Blue Jays vs Angels – Wednesday April 22nd, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Los Angeles Angels

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Eric Lauer’s curveball usage has dropped by 5.8% from last season to this one (13.8% to 8%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+285/-410)
  Tyler Heineman has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.3-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Over his last 3 games started, Jose Soriano has seen a significant decline in his fastball spin rate: from 1962 rpm over the entire season to 1883 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Mike Trout generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Eric Lauer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 9.9% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Angels grades them out as the #5 club in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.