How to Watch Mets vs Braves – Monday, July 06, 2026

New York Mets

@

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets Insights

• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Brett Baty tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Reynaldo Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Austin Riley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-165)
  Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 39% ROI)