Philadelphia Phillies
@
Chicago Cubs
-125O/U: 9
(-105/-115)+105
(-105/-115)+105
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Cristopher Sanchez has tallied 17 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Justin Crawford – Over/Under Total BasesJustin Crawford has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 94.7-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Philadelphia Phillies – 2H MoneylineThe Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Edward Cabrera has used his change-up 11% more often this season (36.6%) than he did last year (25.6%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Extreme flyball hitters like Seiya Suzuki usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under Total BasesPete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.