Picks and Betting Line for Nationals vs Guardians Wednesday, May 27, 2026

+155O/U: 7.5
(-120/+100)-175

Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
Miles Mikolas has used his sinker 7.4% more often this season (24%) than he did last year (16.6%).
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
James Wood has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 16.1% rate last season to 25.6% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Gavin Williams’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 83rd percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.3-mph average last season has lowered to 81.8-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.1% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 40 games (+16.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)

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