Official Lineup for Pirates vs Rangers – 8/20/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 20, 2024, they will look to build on their recent success after edging out the Pirates 4-3 in their last matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rangers sitting at 58-68 and the Pirates slightly better at 58-66. However, the Rangers’ advanced-stat Power Rankings place their bullpen as the 2nd best in MLB, giving them a potential edge in late-game situations.

Cody Bradford, projected to start for the Rangers, has been impressive this season with a perfect 4-0 record and a 3.50 ERA. Despite being ranked as only the 93rd best starting pitcher in the league, his luck may soon run out given his 4.23 xFIP, which suggests a regression could be on the horizon. Bradford’s recent performance has shown his ability to limit earned runs, as he averaged just 2.3 earned runs allowed in projections for this game.

On the mound for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller, who is having a down year ranked as a below-average pitcher. Keller’s last start was disastrous, giving up 8 earned runs on 8 hits, which raises concerns about his ability to handle the Rangers’ offense, particularly with their best hitter Corey Seager, who has had a solid season with 28 home runs and a 0.862 OPS.

Despite both teams having below-average offensive rankings—23rd for the Rangers and 27th for the Pirates—Dallas’ team is projected to score 4.93 runs on average according to the leading MLB projection system, suggesting they have the capability to exploit Keller’s recent struggles. With the Rangers favored with a moneyline of -140, there may be good value in backing them to win this matchup again.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 squad in the league this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-140)
  Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Texas Rangers will score 4.85 runs on average in this matchup: the 4th-most of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+17.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 94 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Joey Bart has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+8.90 Units / 68% ROI)