Official Lineup for Brewers vs Phillies - 9/22/2026

+130O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-150

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
In his previous outing, Dustin May allowed a monstrous 6 earned runs.
Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Despite posting a .385 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Bauers has been very fortunate given the .050 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Brandon Marsh has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+130)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+10.50 Units / 262% ROI)

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