Odds and Betting Trends for Reds vs Marlins - 4/7/26

+120O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-140

Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andrew Abbott has used his off-speed and breaking balls 5.4% less often this year (47.4%) than he did last year (52.8%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
Since the start of last season, TJ Friedl’s 2.8% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 7th percentile among his peers.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The 7.4% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds makes them the #28 club in the game since the start of last season by this stat.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Sandy Alcantara’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 95th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
In comparison to his 86.7-mph average last year, Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 90.3 mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Austin Slater hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+120)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-155/+120)
Sandy Alcantara has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)

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