Mets vs Marlins Game Highlights – Sunday, July 21, 2024

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins and New York Mets gear up for their July 21, 2024 matchup at LoanDepot Park, the contrast between their seasons is stark. The Marlins are languishing with a 34-64 record, while the Mets are holding their own at 50-47, placing them above average in the National League East standings. This game marks the third in their series, with the Mets having an implied win probability of 58% according to the current moneyline of -150.

On the mound, the Marlins will start lefty Trevor Rogers, who has had a tough season with a 1-9 record and a 4.72 ERA###101. Rogers, ranked 202nd by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has struggled, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs and 5.4 hits per game. His high-groundball rate (48%) might serve as a counter to the Mets’ powerful lineup, which ranks 5th in MLB with 121 home runs.

The Mets will counter with right-hander Christian Scott, who has been solid if unspectacular with a 4.36 ERA and a 0-2 record over 8 starts. Scott’s low-walk rate (5.7%) and high-flyball tendencies (45%) could be advantageous against a Marlins offense that ranks dead last in MLB in home runs and is 29th in overall offensive performance. Scott is ranked 68th by THE BAT X, reflecting his above-average capabilities.

Both teams’ bullpens and offenses add another layer to this matchup. The Marlins’ bullpen is ranked 11th, a bright spot in their otherwise dismal season, while the Mets’ bullpen sits at 20th. Offensively, the Mets hold the edge, ranking 7th overall and 10th in team batting average, compared to the Marlins’ 29th and 24th ranks in these categories, respectively.

Given the disparities, the Mets’ potent offense and Scott’s above-average pitching appear to have the upper hand. However, Rogers’ groundball rate could stymie the Mets’ power, and the Marlins’ bullpen might keep them in the game. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, expect a mid-scoring affair where the Mets are favored to come out on top.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+120)
  The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Miami Marlins offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 79 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)