Match Preview: Braves vs Nationals Game Forecast – Thursday, April 23, 2026

Atlanta Braves

@

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves Insights

• JR Ritchie – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 84.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, JR Ritchie places him the 21st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under Total Bases
  Austin Riley has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 20.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 35.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Atlanta Braves in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .326, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .341 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Cade Cavalli faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Tena – Over/Under Total Bases
  This year, Jose Tena’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 5.4% last year to just 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.