Mariners vs Tigers Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 10/07/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Logan Gilbert’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (37.7 compared to 32.3% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Eugenio Suarez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (92.3 mph) below where it was last year (93.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  There has been a decrease in Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity this year, from 88 mph last year to 85.9 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games at home (+17.08 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 82 of their last 148 games (+14.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+165/-220)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+9.95 Units / 49% ROI)