Live Updates on Guardians vs Mets – 8/05/25

Cleveland Guardians

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on August 5, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. After a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Mets fell short with a score of 7-6, they look to bounce back against a Guardians team that clinched victory in that same outing.

Currently, the Mets sit at 63-50, demonstrating solid form this season, while the Guardians hover around the .500 mark at 57-55. Despite their average performance, the Guardians’ offense struggles significantly, ranking 27th overall in MLB. In contrast, the Mets have shown flashes of offensive prowess, currently ranked 13th, although their .222 batting average places them 22nd, indicating room for improvement.

Clay Holmes, projected to start for the Mets, has had a commendable season, holding a 9-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.45. However, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, hinting that his performance could decline. In his last start on July 30, Holmes went just 4 innings but managed to allow only 2 earned runs despite giving up 8 hits and 2 walks. His ability to handle the Guardians’ struggling lineup will be crucial in this matchup.

On the other side, Logan Allen, with a 7-9 record and an ERA of 4.06, is projected to start for Cleveland. His recent performance was a bright spot, going 7 innings with just 2 earned runs in his last outing. However, the projections indicate he still faces challenges, particularly against a Mets offense eager to capitalize on hitting opportunities.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting the belief that they will come out on top today. Given the disparity in offensive effectiveness and pitching matchups, this game presents a favorable opportunity for the Mets to regain momentum and claim victory.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Logan Allen has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kyle Manzardo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clay Holmes in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-160)
  The 4th-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)