Live Updates for Pirates vs Marlins – 3/30/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 30, 2025, it’s a matchup that highlights stark contrasts in performance this season. The Marlins hold a solid 2-1 record, showcasing a promising start, while the Pirates lag behind at 1-2, struggling to find their footing. This game marks the fourth in their series, and after a thrilling encounter yesterday, where Miami edged out Pittsburgh 5-4, the Marlins look to build momentum.

Projected starting pitchers Max Meyer and Andrew Heaney both enter this game with less-than-stellar reputations, although Meyer’s performance has been slightly better on the surface. Meyer, ranked the 231st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is expected to pitch about 4.6 innings and allow around 2.1 earned runs. His last outing saw him struggle significantly, giving up 5 earned runs over 6 innings back on September 3, 2024. In contrast, Heaney has also had a rough time recently, with a disastrous start on September 28, 2024, where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings.

The Marlins’ offense, despite ranking 27th overall this season, has shown flashes of potential, particularly with their best hitter boasting a .455 batting average and a 1.299 OPS. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 28th in the league and has shown even less consistency. As both teams rely heavily on their pitchers, it will be crucial for Meyer to harness his control and improve on projections that estimate he will allow 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks today.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, this matchup could be tighter than anticipated. Betting markets favor the Marlins slightly at -125, reflecting their current form and slight edge on paper. However, with both teams showcasing weaknesses, especially in their pitching staffs ranked 30th and 25th respectively for the Marlins and Pirates, expect a competitive game where any slip could prove costly.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Andrew Heaney to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.245) suggests that Adam Frazier has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .202 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Meyer must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary offerings a lot since the start of last season: 58.6% of the time, checking in at the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Javier Sanoja’s 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 79 games at home (+29.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 100 games (+5.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)