Marlins vs Yankees Betting Guide and Expert Picks April 3rd, 2026

+140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-160

Eury Perez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Because groundball pitchers have a big advantage over groundball batters, Eury Perez and his 43.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today’s outing going up against 3 opposing GB batters.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
New York’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Xavier Edwards, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
The Miami Marlins have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Will Warren in this matchup, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Aaron Judge’s 25.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The 12% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 squad in the game since the start of last season by this metric.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+18.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 61 away games (+21.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.90 Units / 86% ROI)

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