Live Updates for Marlins vs Blue Jays – 9/29/2024

Miami Marlins

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Miami Marlins at Rogers Centre on September 29, 2024, in the final game of their three-game series. Neither team is in playoff contention, with the Blue Jays holding a 74-87 record and the Marlins struggling at 61-100. Toronto, despite a subpar season, holds the advantage with a better record than Miami’s dreadful campaign.

In their last matchup, the Marlins took a commanding 8-1 victory over the Blue Jays. Miami’s offense, ranked 27th in MLB, surprisingly came alive against Toronto’s lackluster bullpen, which ranks 26th. Ryan Burr will take the mound for the Blue Jays. Although primarily a reliever with no starts this season, Burr’s 3.69 ERA and #98 pitcher ranking suggest he’s capable of providing solid innings. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Blue Jays a 59% chance of winning, slightly above the betting market’s implied probability of 56%.

Opposing Burr will be Ryan Weathers, a left-hander with a 3.81 ERA who has started 15 games for the Marlins. Weathers is a below-average pitcher by advanced metrics, but his groundball tendencies could neutralize Toronto’s power, which ranks 26th in home runs. The Blue Jays’ offense, ranking 14th overall, will look to capitalize on Weathers’ tendency to allow hits and walks.

Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains a key figure in the lineup, boasting a .324 batting average and 30 home runs. Meanwhile, Miami’s Jake Burger leads their offense with similar power numbers, though the team ranks 27th in home runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Ryan Weathers’s fastball spin rate has spiked 114 rpm this year (2322 rpm) over where it was last season (2208 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Connor Norby has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 15.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Jake Burger, Dane Myers, Griffin Conine).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Ryan Burr will “start” for Toronto Blue Jays in today’s game but will fill the role of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Spencer Horwitz has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 77 away games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Griffin Conine has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.10 Units / 152% ROI)