Injury Report for Giants vs Rockies – Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Colorado Rockies

On September 3, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League West matchup. The Rockies, struggling this season with a record of 39-100, are looking to find some semblance of momentum against the Giants, who sit at 70-69 and are having an average year. This game marks the third in the series, and the Rockies will be hoping to break a streak of disappointing performances.

The Rockies are projected to start German Marquez, who has had a tough year with a 3-12 record and a concerning ERA of 6.14. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics indicate that he might have been unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 5.04, suggesting he could perform better moving forward. However, Marquez’s projections for this game are not encouraging, with averages of 4.6 innings pitched and 3.5 earned runs allowed.

On the other hand, Robbie Ray is set to take the mound for the Giants. Ray, with a record of 10-6 and an impressive ERA of 3.18, has been a reliable presence in the rotation. His projections indicate he’ll pitch around 5.0 innings while allowing 3.4 earned runs. Interestingly, Ray’s high walk rate might not be fully exploited by the Rockies, who have the lowest walk rate in MLB.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season, with the Rockies ranking 27th in MLB in overall offense and the Giants at 23rd. The Rockies’ best hitter has shown some recent promise, recording a .412 batting average over the last week, but the team as a whole needs more consistency. Meanwhile, the Giants have a higher implied team total of 6.54 runs, reflecting their stronger position in this matchup.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Dominic Smith’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 86.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 83.6-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  German Marquez’s high utilization rate of his fastball (55.7% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Orlando Arcia are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to score the 2nd-most runs (6.05 on average) of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 135 games (+14.97 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 away games (+9.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Dominic Smith has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)