
Houston Astros
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Baltimore Orioles
+105O/U: 9
(-120/+100)-125
(-120/+100)-125
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (+120)Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Houston Astros.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Baltimore’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Yordan Alvarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Brandon Young – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Brandon Young has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Tyler O’Neill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)Tyler O’Neill pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-110/-120)Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)
