In-depth Player Analysis for Twins vs Rays - Friday April 24, 2026

+105O/U: 7.5
(-105/-115)-125

Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Among all SPs, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph is in the 79th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Trevor Larnach is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Drew Rasmussen (46.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Minnesota’s projected batting order.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 9th-best batter in the majors when assessing his batting average ability.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
The Tampa Bay Rays (19.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams today.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 52% ROI)
Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 29% ROI)

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