
Athletics
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Cincinnati Reds
+145O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)Mason Barnett has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the game on balls in play this year with a .243 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
- Henry Bolte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Henry Bolte has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Andrew Abbott has averaged 93.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)JJ Bleday is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#2-worst on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suarez, Matt McLain).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 30 games (+16.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Henry Bolte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)Henry Bolte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
