
Cleveland Guardians
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Toronto Blue Jays
-130O/U: 8
(-105/-115)+110
(-105/-115)+110
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Gavin Williams’s slider percentage has spiked by 7.6% from last year to this one (19.7% to 27.3%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Bo Naylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)In his last GS, Max Scherzer was on point and gave up 1 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Kazuma Okamoto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+12.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under Total BasesErnie Clement has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+11.35 Units / 40% ROI)
