How to Watch Yankees vs Twins – Wednesday, September 17, 2025

New York Yankees

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins host the New York Yankees on September 17, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Twins are struggling this season with a record of 66-85, while the Yankees are in contention with a solid 84-67 record. In their last encounter, the Yankees edged the Twins in a thrilling 10-9 game, marking the second consecutive loss for Minnesota in this series.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Taj Bradley, who has had an average season with a 6-7 record and a 4.88 ERA. Bradley’s recent outings suggest he might be due for a turnaround, as his 4.35 xFIP indicates he has faced some misfortune this year. However, he projects to pitch only 4.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Yankees lineup.

Luis Gil, on the other hand, is projected to start for New York. Gil has been impressive, boasting a 4-1 record and a remarkable 2.83 ERA. However, his 5.58 xFIP suggests he might not maintain this level of performance. In his last start, Gil pitched a 6-inning no-hitter, a remarkable feat that has certainly raised expectations for his next outing.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in MLB, showcasing a lineup that has the potential to capitalize on any pitching mistakes. The Twins, while averaging in the middle of the pack offensively, rank 22nd in team batting average, which could hinder their ability to keep pace with the Yankees’ scoring.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -150, while the Twins sit at +130 as underdogs. Given the projections and recent performances, the Yankees appear poised to take this game, despite the Twins’ potential for an upset.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given the 1.73 disparity between Luis Gil’s 7.40 K/9 and his 9.13 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform better the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 12% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 group of hitters in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Luke Keaschall’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 82-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+13.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)