How to Watch Yankees vs Twins – Wednesday, September 17, 2025

New York Yankees

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 17, 2025, at Target Field, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Yankees, with a record of 84-67, are in a strong position, while the Twins, sitting at 66-85, continue to struggle this season. In their last matchup, the Yankees triumphed, extending their winning momentum, while the Twins are looking to break free from a disappointing stretch.

On the mound, the Twins will send out Taj Bradley, who has had a challenging year with a 6-7 record and a 4.88 ERA, indicating below-average performance. However, his 4.35 xFIP suggests he could be due for a turnaround, as he has been somewhat unlucky. Bradley projects to pitch an average of 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs. His strikeout rate of 5.0 is average, but he needs to limit the 2.0 walks he typically issues.

In contrast, the Yankees will counter with Luis Gil, who has been effective with a 4-1 record and an impressive 2.83 ERA. Yet, his 5.58 xFIP indicates he may not maintain this level of success. Gil’s projections show he will likely pitch 4.7 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, but he also struggles with walks, averaging 2.4 per outing.

The Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power hitting, leading the league in home runs. In contrast, the Twins’ offense ranks 15th overall but has been inconsistent, particularly in batting average, where they sit 22nd. Given the disparities in pitching and offensive capabilities, the Yankees enter this matchup as significant favorites, making it a crucial game for the Twins to find some much-needed momentum.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given the 1.73 disparity between Luis Gil’s 7.40 K/9 and his 9.13 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform better the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 12% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 group of hitters in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Luke Keaschall’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 82-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+13.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Luke Keaschall has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)