How to Watch the Royals vs Pirates Game - Saturday September 19, 2026

+100O/U: 8
(-105/-115)-120

Noah Cameron – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Noah Cameron’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (71.2% this year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
John Rave – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
When it comes to his home runs, John Rave has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 19.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.1.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 5th-best batter in the league.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Bubba Chandler’s 97.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
Ryan O’Hearn is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Rafael Flores, Konnor Griffin).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Carter Jensen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
Carter Jensen has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)

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