Uncover the Game Forecast: Cubs vs Reds Match Preview - 9/19/26

-135O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+115

Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Matthew Boyd has recorded 17.2 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
Michael Busch is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Nick Lodolo has relied on his sinker 5.8% more often this year (26.2%) than he did last year (20.4%).
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Elly De La Cruz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Eugenio Suarez, Elly De La Cruz).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+115)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games at home (+3.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 41% ROI)
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 28% ROI)

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