How to Watch the Pirates vs Brewers Game – Monday June 23, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 23, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Brewers are currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 43-35, while the Pirates are struggling significantly at 31-48. In their last games, the Brewers edged out a thrilling 9-8 victory, while the Pirates managed a win against a different opponent with a score of 8-3.

Starting for the Brewers is Chad Patrick, who has had a rollercoaster season with a Win/Loss record of 3-7, but boasts a respectable ERA of 3.50. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and he projects to allow an average of 5.0 hits today, which is concerning. His counterpart, Braxton Ashcraft, enters the game with an impressive ERA of 1.54, but his projections indicate that he may struggle, especially given his low innings pitched projection of 4.0.

The Brewers’ offense ranks 18th overall in MLB, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd with 93 this season. Conversely, the Pirates sit at 29th in offensive rankings, which highlights their struggles, particularly in power, as they have hit only 53 home runs this year—the fewest in the league.

The advanced-stat Power Rankings favor the Brewers, who boast a top-10 bullpen, while the Pirates’ bullpen ranks 21st. Given these factors, the Brewers are positioned as significant favorites in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.77 runs. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive outing is expected.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braxton Ashcraft to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 4 IP.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 78.6-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 6 batters who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Chad Patrick figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Pittsburgh’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 away games (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+8.00 Units / 133% ROI)