How to Watch the Pirates vs Brewers Game – Monday June 23, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 23, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field in the first game of a three-game series. Both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes, as the Brewers are currently 43-35 and enjoying a solid season, while the Pirates sit at 31-48, having struggled significantly this year. The Brewers recently secured a close victory against the Pirates, winning 9-8 in their last outing on June 22, while the Pirates snapped a losing streak with an 8-3 win.

Milwaukee is projected to start Chad Patrick, who, despite being ranked 172nd among starting pitchers according to advanced metrics, boasts a respectable ERA of 3.50. However, his xFIP of 4.20 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far this season. Patrick has had a mixed bag of performances, including a recent start where he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB and has managed the fewest home runs this season, giving him an edge as a high-flyball pitcher against a power-challenged lineup.

On the other side, Pittsburgh will send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound. Though his ERA of 1.54 appears stellar, his xFIP of 4.40 indicates similar concerns regarding luck. Ashcraft’s projection of 4.4 innings pitched and 3.5 strikeouts shows he may struggle to keep pace with a Brewers lineup that, while ranked 20th in overall offensive performance, has the potential to capitalize on his weaknesses.

With the Brewers favored in this matchup, the current betting lines suggest an implied team total of 4.93 runs, while the Pirates are projected for just 3.57 runs. This discrepancy highlights the challenges Pittsburgh faces as they attempt to turn their season around.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braxton Ashcraft to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 4 IP.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 78.6-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a group rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 7th-worst) as far as their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Chad Patrick has been lucky this year, posting a 3.50 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.60 — a 1.1 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Pittsburgh’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 away games (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+8.00 Units / 133% ROI)